For updates on how the U.S tariffs impact the Vaughan business community, visit vaughanbusiness.ca/tariffs

Vaughan Economic and Business Update – February 2026

Vaughan Economic and Business Update - February 2026

Economic Development is providing this update featuring national, provincial, and local investments, trends, and highlights. These economic indicators link to local investment stories.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

  • The national Consumer Price Index rose 2.3 per cent year-over-year in January, following a 2.4 per cent increase in December
  • The national unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points to 6.5 per cent in January, while the employment rate decreased 0.1 percentage points to 60.8 per cent.
  • National Real Gross Domestic Product rose 0.2 per cent in December, rebounding from back-to-back monthly contractions in October and November, led by manufacturing and wholesale trade.
  • In January, the Vaughan Business and Entrepreneurship Centre experienced demand for consulting in professional scientific and technical services, other services (except public administration), and arts, entertainment and recreation.
  • The City of Vaughan recognizes 37 local entrepreneurs who successfully completed the 2025 Starter Company Plus program, reinforcing Vaughan’s commitment to entrepreneurship and small business growth.
  • Walmart Canada acquires 85 acres of industrial land in Vaughan for a planned second distribution facility, further cementing the city’s position as a major node in the Canadian logistics and warehousing sector.
  • Vaughan Economic Development Hosts CUSMA Compliance Workshop for Local Businesses in partnership with Toronto Region Board of Trade


 

SELECT ECONOMIC INDICATORS

The national Consumer Price Index rose 2.3 per cent year-over-year in January, following a 2.4 per cent increase in December.

The Consumer Price Index rose 2.3 per cent on a year-over-year basis in January, down slightly from a 2.4 per cent increase in December. In Ontario, the Consumer Price Index rose 2.0 per cent year-over-year in January, down slightly from 2.1 per cent in December. On a year-over-year basis, prices rose at a slower pace in nine of Canada’s ten provinces in January compared with December, the exception being British Columbia.

Upward pressure on headline inflation was driven significantly by the expiry of the temporary federal Goods and Services Tax (GST)/Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) break in February 2025. In January 2026, previously tax-exempt goods and services such as restaurant meals, alcoholic beverages, toys, and children’s clothing were now registering year-over-year price increases relative to a period when they were temporarily exempt from tax. Restaurant meals, for example, rose 12.3 per cent year over year in January, compared with prices that were lower during the GST/HST break period.

Gasoline prices continued to put downward pressure on inflation, falling 16.7 per cent year over year in January, following a 13.8 per cent decline in December. The larger year-over-year decline in January was mainly attributable to a base-year effect, as crude oil prices had risen in January 2025.

Prices for food purchased from stores rose 4.8 per cent year over year in January, following a 5.0 per cent increase in December. The modest deceleration was primarily driven by a decline in fresh fruit prices (-3.1 per cent) in January, as harvests in key growing regions stabilized prices for berries, oranges, and melons.

Shelter price growth continued its downward trend, rising 1.7 per cent year over year in January. This is the first time in nearly five years that year-over-year shelter price growth has fallen below 2.0 per cent, driven by slower growth in rent and mortgage interest costs. Rent prices rose at a slower pace year over year in January (+4.3 per cent) than in December (+4.9 per cent), and the mortgage interest cost index decelerated for the fourth consecutive month.

 

The national unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points to 6.5 per cent in January, while the employment rate decreased 0.1 percentage points to 60.8 per cent.

The national unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points to 6.5 per cent in January, the lowest level since September 2024, while the employment rate declined 0.1 percentage points to 60.8 per cent. The distinction between unemployment and employment is that unemployment takes into account the number of working age (15 years of age or older) individuals seeking employment (the labour force) but are currently unemployed, while employment considers the proportion of the entire working age population (whether seeking work or not) who are employed. The unemployment rate in January was 0.6 percentage points below the recent high of 7.1 per cent recorded in August and September 2025. Overall employment edged down by 25,000 (-0.1 per cent) in January. The decline in the unemployment rate was driven primarily by a reduction in the number of people actively searching for work (-94,000; -6.1 per cent), rather than an improvement in hiring.

Employment fell by 67,000 (-0.8 per cent) in Ontario in January 2026 relative to December 2025, while the unemployment rate in the province declined 0.6 percentage points to 7.3 per cent. The labour force participation rate in Ontario fell by 1.0 percentage points to 64.4 per cent in January, with the largest decline observed among youth aged 15 to 24 (-2.7 percentage points).

Nationally, the most significant employment declines in January were in manufacturing (-28,000; -1.5 per cent) and educational services (-24,000; -1.5 per cent). The manufacturing decline was concentrated in Ontario and reflects the continued impact of United States tariffs on Canadian exports, particularly in sectors such as automotive and industrial equipment. On a year-over-year basis, manufacturing employment was down 51,000 (-2.7 per cent) nationally. Employment in information, culture and recreation (+17,000; +2.0 per cent) and business, building and other support services (+14,000; +2.1 per cent) recorded gains in January.

Average hourly wages among employees grew 3.3 per cent (+$1.18 to $37.17) on a year-over-year basis in January. The youth unemployment rate (ages 15 to 24) fell 0.5 percentage points to 12.8 per cent in January, remaining 1.8 percentage points below the recent high of 14.6 per cent recorded in September 2025.

 

National Real Gross Domestic Product rose 0.2 per cent in December, following back-to-back monthly contractions in October and November.

The national Real Gross Domestic Product rose 0.2 per cent in December, recovering from consecutive monthly contractions of 0.3 per cent and 1.3 per cent recorded in October and November respectively. Both goods-producing and services-producing industries expanded in December, with 11 of the 20 industrial sectors growing in the month.

The manufacturing sector, a key driver of Vaughan’s economy, returned to growth in December, rising 1.2 per cent after back-to-back monthly declines. Durable goods manufacturing grew 1.8 per cent, with strong rebounds in machinery manufacturing (+6.6 per cent), non-metallic mineral product manufacturing (+5.2 per cent) and computer and electronic product manufacturing (+4.1 per cent). Motor vehicle manufacturing rebounded 5.8 per cent following a semiconductor-shortage-induced contraction in November, though lower motor vehicle parts manufacturing fell 3.7 per cent in the month. The full-year picture for manufacturing in 2025 was challenging: the sector contracted 2.6 per cent for the year, its third consecutive annual decline, with additional negative impacts of United States tariffs on Canadian goods put in place in 2025.

The wholesale trade sector expanded 1.7 per cent in December, offsetting November’s contraction and led by motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts wholesalers, which rebounded 10.9 per cent as imports of passenger cars recovered following the semiconductor-related disruption.

Transportation and warehousing rose 0.7 per cent in December, driven by gains in transit and ground passenger transportation as well as couriers and messengers. This is a positive signal for Vaughan’s significant transportation, logistics and distribution sector.

On an annual basis, Real GDP by industry grew 1.6 per cent in 2025, up for a fifth consecutive year, though at the slowest pace in five years. The construction sector grew 2.3 per cent in 2025, its first annual increase since 2022, led by engineering and residential construction activity

 


LOCAL TRENDS, INVESTMENTS, AND SUCCESS STORIES

 

In January, the Vaughan Business and Entrepreneurship Centre experienced demand for consulting in professional scientific and technical services, health care and social assistance, and accommodation and food services.

In January, the top five industries seeking small business or entrepreneurship consultations were:

  1. Professional and Scientific and Technical Services (20 per cent)
  2. Health Care and Social Assistance (13.6 per cent)
  3. Accommodation & Food Services (13.6 per cent)
  4. Other Services, except public administration (11.4 per cent)
  5. Transportation and Warehousing (11.4 per cent)

*Other services include repair centers for motor vehicles, pet care services, funeral, laundry, photo finishing, etc.

 

The City of Vaughan recognizes 37 local entrepreneurs who successfully completed the 2025 Starter Company Plus program, reinforcing Vaughan’s commitment to entrepreneurship and small business growth.

The City of Vaughan celebrated the achievements of 37 local entrepreneurs who successfully completed the 2025 Starter Company Plus program. Participants were formally recognized by Mayor Steven Del Duca and Members of Council at the Feb. 10 Committee of the Whole (2) meeting. The Starter Company Plus program, delivered locally by the Vaughan Business and Entrepreneurship Centre, provides tailored training, one-on-one business advisory consultations, and the opportunity to apply for up to $5,000 in provincial grant funding to help entrepreneurs develop and execute their business plans.

Small businesses are the backbone of Vaughan’s economy. Programs like Starter Company Plus are a critical component of Vaughan’s ecosystem for nurturing new ventures, strengthening the entrepreneurial culture, and enabling local businesses to grow and compete in a rapidly evolving marketplace.

 

Walmart Canada acquires 85 acres of industrial land in Vaughan for a planned second distribution facility, further cementing the city’s position as a major node in the Canadian logistics and warehousing sector.

Walmart Canada has acquired an 84.9-acre parcel of industrial land in Vaughan, located at 10223 Highway 50, for $76.8 million, with plans to develop a second major distribution facility in the city. The property is within the Vaughan Enterprise Zone, a designated business area that spans 4,122 acres ad offers the largest supply of vacant employment lands in the Greater Toronto Area. This acquisition follows the opening of Walmart Canada’s first ambient distribution centre at 360 Shipwill St. in Vaughan in October 2025. The existing 550,000 sq. ft. facility, Walmart Canada’s first of its kind in the country, utilizes automation, robotics, and artificial intelligence to optimize logistics operations.

The planned second facility could accommodate a built-to-suit warehouse of approximately 734,000 to 1.1 million sq. ft. and is part of Walmart Canada’s broader $6.5-billion investment commitment in Canada announced in early 2025. This continued investment underscores Vaughan’s emergence as a premier destination for large-scale, technology-enabled distribution operations and confirms the strategic value of Vaughan’s Highway 400 and Highway 50 corridors for national logistics infrastructure. Vaughan remains the largest industrial market in York Region and the fourth-largest industrial market in the Greater Toronto Area after Toronto, Mississauga, and Brampton.

 

Vaughan Economic Development Hosts CUSMA Compliance Workshop for Local Businesses in partnership with Toronto Region Board of Trade

On February 19, Vaughan Economic Development, in partnership with the Toronto Region Board of Trade, hosted CUSMA Compliance Workshop: Avoiding the U.S. Tariff Trap at Vaughan City Hall. The workshop provided local businesses with practical guidance on navigating CUSMA requirements, avoiding tariff risks, and strengthening their readiness for cross-border trade. This initiative reflects Vaughan’s continued commitment to supporting business competitiveness through timely education, advisory programming, and strategic partnerships.

Held in response to an increasingly complex and shifting tariff environment, the workshop was especially of-the-moment for Vaughan businesses trading with the United States. Attendees learned how CUSMA regulations affect their operations, how to properly certify goods, and how to protect margins and competitiveness in the U.S. market. This knowledge is critical, as CUSMA-compliant exporters are better positioned to maintain pricing power and preserve market access, while non-compliant firms may face tariffs of up to 35 per cent on non-qualifying goods, in addition to sector-specific penalties. The session also connected participants to additional compliance supports, including expert-led resources, toolkits and coaching opportunities designed to help Ontario exporters build a strong foundation for long-term CUSMA success.