For updates on how the U.S tariffs impact the Vaughan business community, visit vaughanbusiness.ca/tariffs

Vaughan Economic and Business Update – January 2025

Highlights

  • The national Consumer Price Index rose 1.9 per cent year-over-year in November, following a 2.0 per cent increase in October.
  • The national unemployment rate saw a marginal decline to 6.7 per cent in December, while the employment rate grew to 60.8 per cent.
  • The national Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 0.3 per cent in October, following a 0.2 per cent increase in September.
  • The Vaughan Business and Entrepreneurship Centre experienced demand for consultations in the arts, entertainment and recreation, manufacturing and utilities industries in December.
  • Vaughan hosted the inaugural Demonstration Zone Showcase in December, highlighting the first cohort of the OVIN Demonstration Zone to accelerate transformative mobility technologies.
  • Carpenters’ Regional Council held the grand opening of a new training centre in Vaughan, positioning the City as pivotal to local, regional, and national workforce development in the construction and building materials sector.

SELECT Economic Indicators

The national Consumer Price Index rose 1.9 per cent year-over-year in November, following a 2.0 per cent increase in October.

 

The national Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.9 per cent year-over-year in November, down from a 2.0 per cent increase in October. The slower price growth was largely influenced by a decline in prices for travel tours and the mortgage interest cost index. In Ontario, the CPI rose 1.8 per cent year-over-year in November, down from a 2.0 per cent increase in October. Despite the overall deceleration, Canadians continue to experience the impact of higher price levels for day-to-day essentials.

 

Shelter prices rose at a slower rate year-over-year in November (+4.6 per cent) compared to October (+4.8 per cent). Despite this slower acceleration, rent has continued to increase over the last few years, with an 18.9 per cent increase compared to November 2021. Rent price growth accelerated the most in Ontario (+7.4 per cent), Manitoba (+7.9 per cent), and Nova Scotia (+6.4 per cent).

 

Food prices in stores rose 2.6 per cent year-over-year in November, a slight decrease from the 2.7 per cent rise in October. Since November 2021, grocery prices have remained elevated, climbing 19.6 per cent in the past few years. This sustained increase in food prices can put additional strains on household budgets, with nearly half of Canadians reporting that rising prices were greatly affecting their ability to meet day-to-day expenses in spring 2024.

 

Gasoline prices fell marginally in November (-0.5 per cent) compared to October (-0.4 per cent). This smaller contraction is partly due to a base-year effect in November 2023, when prices fell 3.5 per cent month-over-month.

 

The national unemployment rate saw a marginal decline to 6.7 per cent in December, while the employment rate grew to 60.8 per cent.

 

The national unemployment rate saw a marginal decline to 6.7 per cent in December, while the employment rate increased to 60.8 per cent, a minimal uptick from 60.6 per cent in November. Ontario’s unemployment rate held steady at 7.5 per cent in December, marking a 1.2 percentage points increase on a year-over-year basis. In the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) – which includes Vaughan – the unemployment rate fell to 8.6 per cent.

 

Employment rose by 91,000 (+0.4 per cent) in December, continuing the upward trend from November’s increase of 51,000 (+0.2 per cent). Across age groups, employment rose predominantly amongst core-aged men (+30,000, +0.4 per cent), men aged 55 and older (+41,000, +1.7 per cent), and women aged 55 and older (+21,000, +1.1 per cent) over the same period.

Employment increased in educational services (+17,000, +1.1 per cent), transportation and warehousing (+17,000, +1.6 per cent), finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing (+16,000, +1.1 per cent), and health care and social assistance (+16,000, +0.5 per cent).

 

Recent data demonstrates that amongst the population aged 15 and older who are employed, the employment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 60.8 per cent in December. Despite December marking the first increase since January 2023, employment growth has occurred alongside slowing population growth, partly due to a slowing net increase of non-permanent residents.

 

Youth continue to face employment challenges. Over the course of 2024, youth employment rates fell by 2.5 percentage points, reflecting a continued downward trend since April 2023. In December 2024, youth employment rates had dropped to 53.8 per cent, which is 4.4 percentage points lower than the pre-pandemic average of 58.2 per cent from 2017 to 2019.

 

Average hourly wages among employees saw a slower growth this month, increasing 3.8 per cent (up $1.32 to $35.77) year-over-year in December, compared to a growth of 4.1 per cent in November and 4.9 per cent in October (not seasonally adjusted).

 

National Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 0.3 per cent in October, following a 0.2 per cent increase in September.

 

The national Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) saw a slight increase in October by 0.3 per cent, following a 0.2 per cent increase in September.

 

The services-producing industries experienced a marginal increase of 0.1 per cent in October, with increased activity in the real estate and rental and leasing sector as the primary driver for this growth. Meanwhile, after four consecutive monthly declines, the goods-producing industries saw a 0.9 per cent rise, led by mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction activity.

 

In October, the manufacturing sector posted a 0.3 per cent increase, following four consecutive months of decline. The growth, driven by an increase in non-durable goods manufacturing (+1.2 per cent), was tempered by a contraction in durable goods manufacturing (-0.4 per cent) in October.

Petroleum and coal product manufacturing (+3.8 per cent) contributed the most to the growth in non-durable goods manufacturing. This coincided with a 6.1 per cent expansion in the petroleum refiners industry, driven by higher exports of refined petroleum products and increased production following maintenance activities in October.

Conversely, most durable goods manufacturing industries contracted over the same period. Machinery manufacturing contributed the most to the decline, falling 2.9 per cent, recording the subsector’s lowest level of activity since July 2021. Similarly, wood product manufacturing contracted 0.7 per cent in October, in large part due to weaker activity in sawmills and wood preservation.

The construction sector grew by 0.4 per cent in October, marking the third consecutive month of growth. Amongst the sector, non-residential building construction led the way with a 1.8 per cent, driven by investments in institutional buildings.

 

Real estate and rental and leasing rose 0.5 per cent in October, recording its sixth consecutive monthly increase. The offices of real estate agents and brokers and activities related to real estate (+6.3 per cent) were the largest contributors to the growth. The activity level was at its highest point since April 2022, driven by increases in national home sales in markets including Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver areas.

 

The transportation and warehousing sector grew by 0.2 per cent in October for the third consecutive month. This growth was driven by increases in air transportation (+1.6 per cent) and pipeline transportation (+1.9 per cent). Transit, ground passenger, scenic and sightseeing transportation also saw a 1.0 per cent rise, led by urban transit systems, reaching its highest ridership level since February 2020. However, declines in rail (-1.8 per cent) and water (-3.4 per cent) transportation, due to strikes at the Port of Montréal and several eastern U.S. ports, tempered the overall sector’s growth.

 

Advance information indicates that real GDP decreased 0.1 per cent in November.  Increases in accommodation and food services and real estate and rental and leasing were partially offset by decreases in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, transportation and warehousing, and finance and insurance.


LOCAL TRENDS, INVESTMENTS, AND SUCCESS STORIES

 

The Vaughan Business and Entrepreneurship Centre experienced demand for consultations in the arts, entertainment and recreation, manufacturing and utilities industries in December.

 

Economic Development’s Small Business and Entrepreneurship top five industries seeking consultations in December were:

 

  1. Arts, entertainment and recreation (24 per cent)
  2. Manufacturing (12 per cent)
  3. Utilities (12 per cent)
  4. Information and cultural industries (9 per cent)
  5. Retail trade and other services* (5 per cent)

*Other services include: repair centers for motor vehicles, pet care services, funeral, laundry, photo finishing, etc.

Vaughan hosted the inaugural Demonstration Zone Showcase in December, highlighting the first cohort of the OVIN Demonstration Zone to accelerate transformative mobility technologies.

In December the City of Vaughan, with the City of Markham, the Government of Ontario and the Ontario Vehicle Innovation Network (OVIN) presented Driving Innovation: Automotive Industry Networking & Mobility Technology Demonstration Zone Showcase. Vaughan Economic Development and Infrastructure Planning and Corporate Asset Management (IPCAM) staff, in partnership with Markham, hosted this event at Assembly Park in Vaughan. The event was presented in partnership with York Region, the Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association (APMA), and Assembly Park.

The technology showcase was part of the OVIN Demonstration Zone, funded by a $2.5 million investment from the Ontario government. This initiative accelerates the adoption of transformative automotive and smart mobility technologies, driving innovation and shaping the future of transportation. As part of the event, APMA showcased Project Arrow, the first, original, full-build zero-emission concept vehicle. Automotive manufacturers in Vaughan played a pivotal role by supporting Project Arrow, with companies including Arcelor Mittal, Martinrea International, Woodbridge Group and Pfaff Autoworks having made significant contributions to the project.

The Carpenters’ Regional Council held the grand opening of its new training centre in Vaughan, positioning the City as pivotal to local, regional, and national workforce development in the construction and building materials sector.

The Carpenters’ Regional Council recently held the grand opening of a new training center in Vaughan, ushering in a new generation of skilled trades workers contributing to the construction sector. The Carpenters’ Regional Council, a local branch of the United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America (UBC) located in Vaughan, is part of one of North America’s largest building trade unions, with over half a million members.

Vaughan’s construction and building materials sector remains a significant economic driver, contributing to residential, commercial and industrial growth across the City, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), and Canada. In 2023, Vaughan’s construction industry contributed $4 billion in real GDP to the local economy.