Vaughan Economic and Business Update – July 2025

Highlights

The national Consumer Price Index rose 1.7 per cent year-over-year in May, recording no change from a 1.7 per cent increase in April.
The national unemployment rate fell to 6.9 per cent in June, down from 7.0 per cent in May, while the employment rate rose to 60.9 per cent.
The national Real Gross Domestic Product saw a slight decrease in April by 0.1 per cent, offsetting a 0.2 per cent increase in March.
In June, the Vaughan Business and Entrepreneurship Centre experienced demand for consultations in professional, scientific and technical services, retail trade and manufacturing.
Siemens Canada, a leading technology company, is expanding production in its Concord facility with more manufacturing jobs to increase global competitiveness.

Select Economic Indicators

The national Consumer Price Index rose 1.7 per cent year-over-year in May, recording no change from a 1.7 per cent increase in April.

The national Consumer Price Index rose 1.7 per cent year-over-year in May, recording no change from a 1.7 per cent increase in April. In Ontario, the Consumer Price Index rose marginally on a year-over-year basis from 1.6 per cent in April to 1.7 per cent in May.

Slower price growth in shelter and overall decline in travel tours and air transportation alleviated some pressure on the Consumer Price Index. While continuing to experience rising prices, shelter grew 3.0 per cent year-over-year in May, which is a slower pace compared to a 3.4 per cent increase in April. Rent and mortgage interest costs decelerated, growing at a slower pace in April, largely due to increased availability of rental units and slower population growth compared to last spring.

These effects, however, were offset by smaller declines contributing to an upward pressure on the Consumer Price Index. When comparing year-over-year, gasoline prices were down 15.5 per cent in May compared to an 18.1 per cent decline in April. Gasoline continues to remain below level, benefiting from the removal of the Consumer Carbon Levy as the final payment to eligible Canadians started on April 22, 2025. However, month-over-month gasoline prices increased 1.9 per cent in May as refineries experienced higher costs in switching to summer blends.

Canadians experienced mixed volatility in prices for certain consumer items. As potential impacts of U.S. tariffs continue to be studied, prices for new automobiles continued an upward trend, rising from 4.6 per cent in April to 4.9 per cent in May. Travel tours and air transportation fell 0.2 per cent in May after climbing to 6.7 per cent in April, contributing to downward pressure on the Consumer Price Index. Meanwhile, prices for cellular devices fell at a slower pace in May (-5.5 per cent) compared to the previous month (-10.8 per cent).

The national unemployment rate fell to 6.9 per cent in June, down from 7.0 per cent in May, while the employment rate rose to 60.9 per cent.

The national unemployment rate fell to 6.9 per cent in June, down from 7.0 per cent in May, while the employment rate rose to 60.9 per cent. Ontario’s unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points in June to 7.8 per cent, while unemployment in the Toronto Census Metropolitan (CMA) –which includes Vaughan– decreased to 8.5 per cent.

Employment increased in June (+83,000; +0.4 per cent), the first growth recorded since January 2025. Part-time work and the number of employees in the private and public sectors increased, with minimal changes to the number of self-employed workers. Despite this growth, long-term unemployment went up in June, with 128,000 people unemployed (+9.0 per cent) year-over-year.

By sector, employment increased month-over-month in wholesale and retail trade (+34,000; +1.1 per cent), marking the second consecutive month of growth. Employment also rose for the health care and social assistance sector (+17,000; +0.6 per cent). Over the same period, employment in agriculture fell by 6,000 (-2.6 per cent).

Employment rose among core-aged men (+62,000; +0.8 per cent) and women (+29,000; +0.4 per cent), with minimal changes in employment for youth and people aged 55 years and older. For returning students aged 15 to 24 years, the unemployment rate rose to 17.4 per cent, marking the highest unemployment rate for the month of June since 2009 (excluding the pandemic period). This continues a slow start to the summer job season in May 2025, with a 20.1 per cent unemployment rate among returning students, comparable to record low rates last observed in 2009.

Average hourly wages among employees increased 3.2 per cent (+$1.10 to $36.01) year-over-year in June, a dip from the 3.4 per cent growth in May (not seasonally adjusted).

The national Real Gross Domestic Product saw a slight decrease of 0.1 per cent in April, offsetting a 0.2 per cent increase in March.

The national Real Gross Domestic Product saw a slight decrease in April by 0.1 per cent, offsetting a 0.2 per cent increase in March. While half of the 20 industrial sectors recorded an expansion in April, manufacturing and wholesale trade contributed to the decline.

Overall, the manufacturing sector experienced its most significant drop since April 2021, contracting 1.9 per cent in April. Durable goods manufacturing fell by 2.2 per cent, its first decline in four months, as a majority of subsectors contracted. Most notable was the decrease in the transportation equipment manufacturing subsector (-3.7 per cent), which was attributed to other transportation equipment (-21.6 per cent) and motor vehicle manufacturing (-5.2 per cent). This coincided with uncertainty related to tariff impacts and proactive measures to lower exports of passenger cars and light trucks, as well as scaled-back production for some motor vehicle manufacturers.

Similarly, non-durable goods manufacturing contracted (-1.6 per cent) for the fifth time in six months. Food manufacturing (-3.6 per cent) and petroleum and coal product manufacturing (-5.9 per cent) subsectors were the main contributors to the decrease.

In April, the wholesale trade sector declined by 1.9 per cent, its largest monthly drop since June 2023, primarily due to reduced exports and imports in several subsectors. This includes motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and accessories wholesaler-distributors (-6.8 per cent); machinery, equipment and supplies (-1.6 per cent); and miscellaneous wholesaler-distributors (-3.2 per cent).

Despite these declines, finance and insurance grew (+0.7 per cent) with increased activity in financial investment services. This was led by selling activity on the Toronto Stock Exchange and other financial markets following U.S. tariffs announcements on April 2 and a 90-day pause on U.S. import tariffs, which began on April 9.

Arts, entertainment and recreation rose 2.8 per cent in April, recording the sector’s largest increase since March 2022. This growth was largely due to performing arts, spectator sports and related industries, as well as heritage institutions.

Advance information indicates that real GDP decreased 0.1 per cent in May. The contraction was led by mining, quarrying, oil and gas extraction, public administration and retail trade, which were partially offset by increased activity in real estate and rental and leasing.

LOCAL TRENDS, INVESTMENTS, AND SUCCESS STORIES

In June, the Vaughan Business and Entrepreneurship Centre experienced demand for consultations in professional, scientific and technical services, retail trade and manufacturing.

In June, Economic Development’s Small Business and Entrepreneurship top five industries seeking consultations were:

Professional, scientific and technical services (21 per cent)
Retail trade (13 per cent)
Manufacturing (12 per cent)
Wholesale trade (10 per cent)
Healthcare and social assistance (9 per cent)

Siemens Canada, a leading technology company, is expanding production in its existing Concord facility with more manufacturing jobs to increase global competitiveness.

Siemens Canada, a leading technology company focused on industry, infrastructure, mobility and healthcare, is moving its Peterborough product line and manufacturing jobs to its existing Concord facility. To increase its global competitiveness, Siemens Canada is initiating a two-year transition to transfer the production of measurement intelligence product lines to Concord, with an estimated 70 new manufacturing positions to be created.

Vaughan’s manufacturing cluster is the largest in the city, contributing $4.1 billion or 15 per cent to Vaughan’s real Gross Domestic Product in 2024. The city continues to be a destination for companies to expand, ranking third overall in the country by both the number and value of industrial building permits by the end of 2024.