For updates on how the U.S tariffs impact the Vaughan business community, visit vaughanbusiness.ca/tariffs.
Vaughan Economic and Business Update – March 2025
Highlights
- The national consumer Price Index rose 1.9 per cent year-over-year in January, following a 1.8 per cent increase in December.
- The national unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.6 per cent in February, after two consecutive month-over-month decreases in December and January.
- National Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 0.2 per cent in December, partially offsetting the decline recorded in November.
- The Vaughan Business and Entrepreneurship Centre experienced demand for consultations in manufacturing, retail trade and information and cultural industries in February.
- Vaughan-headquartered Anatolia announced the grand opening of new distribution centre in the city.
Select Economic Indicators
The national consumer Price Index rose 1.9 per cent year-over-year in January, following a 1.8 per cent increase in December.
The national Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.9 per cent year-over-year in January, up from a 1.8 per cent increase in December[1]. In Ontario, the CPI maintained the same year-over-year increase of 1.7 per cent in January, the same as December’s year-over-year increase for CPI.
The national acceleration in price growth was due in large part to rising energy prices, partially tempered by lowered prices on products included in the GST/HST break enacted in December 2024. The GST/HST break particularly impacted several indexes – notably, there was a record drop in prices for food purchased from restaurants (-5.1 per cent), more than three times the previous record decline of 1.6 per cent in December 2024.
Gasoline and natural gas drove rising energy prices in January, with energy prices up 5.3 per cent in January year-over-year compared to December. Prices at the pump overall increased 8.6 per cent on a year-over-year basis in January compared to December (+3.5 per cent). Manitoba saw the highest price growth (+25.9 per cent) due to an additional, permanent 10 per cent cut to the provincial fuel tax after a temporary suspension from January to December 2024[2]. For natural gas, British Columbia recorded the largest provincial increase (+12.8 per cent), while prices for natural gas rose 4.8 per cent in January year-over-year.
Canadians in the market for new passenger vehicles faced price increases. Prices for new passenger vehicles grew 2.3 per cent year-over-year in January, compared to a 0.9 per cent increase in December. Meanwhile, prices for used vehicles posted a continuous decline in January (-3.4 per cent), the 13th consecutive month that prices for used vehicles have decreased year-over-year. The rate of decline for used vehicles in 2024 peaked in September, contracting -7.6 per cent[3].
The national unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.6 per cent in February, after two consecutive month-over-month decreases in December and January.
The national unemployment rate in February remained unchanged at 6.6 per cent, following consecutive month-over-month decreases in December (-0.2 percentage points) and January (-0.1 percentage points)[4]. Ontario’s unemployment rate also fell in February, hitting 7.3 per cent compared to 7.6 per cent in January. In the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) – which includes Vaughan – the unemployment rate dropped 0.2 percentage points to 8.5 per cent in February, down from 8.7 per cent in January.
February saw a marginal increase in national employment of 1,100 (+0.0 per cent), while the employment rate held steady at 61.1 per cent. By province, employment fell in Nova Scotia (-4,300; -0.8 per cent) with minimal changes in all other provinces.
In February, employment gains were recorded in wholesale and retail trade (+51,000; +1.7 per cent) as well as finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing (+16,000; +1.1 per cent). This growth was tempered by declines in professional, scientific and technical services (-33,000; -1.6 per cent) and transportation and warehousing (-23,000; -2.1 per cent).
Across gender and age groups, core-aged women (aged 25 to 54) saw the most significant increase in employment, growing by 27,000 (+0.4 per cent) in February. This continues the growth seen in January, which saw an increase in employment of 36,000 (+0.5 per cent). Despite the growth, core-aged women (15.7 per cent) were found to be more likely than men (6.1 per cent) to work part-time and hold multiple jobs. Caring for children stood out as the primary factor, with almost a quarter of core-aged women (24.3 per cent) citing this as the main reason for working part-time (not seasonally adjusted). Employment for core-aged men, people aged 55 years and older and youth employment were little changed in February.
Average hourly wages among employees were up 3.8 per cent (+$1.32) to $36.14 year-over-year in February, following a growth rate of 3.5 per cent in January (not seasonally adjusted).
National Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 0.2 per cent in December, partially offsetting the decline recorded in November.
The national Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) saw a slight increase in December of 0.2 per cent, partially offsetting the decline recorded in November (-0.2 per cent)[5]. Both services-producing and goods-producing industries posted increased activity, contributing to December’s growth and marking a fifth increase in the second half of 2024.
Among services-producing industries, retail trade was the most significant contributor to growth in December. Meanwhile, goods-producing industries rebounded from previous declines and rose 0.3 per cent, with utilities and mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction being the primary drivers. These same industries were previously the largest detractors to growth in November.
Retail trade activity increased by 2.6 per cent in December, the largest monthly growth rate since June 2021 (+5.0 per cent). The motor vehicle and parts dealers subsector (+5.8 per cent) was a main driver of this increase, followed by food and beverage stores (+2.9 per cent) as part of subsectors impacted by the temporary GST/HST tax break.
In December, utilities posted a 4.7 per cent increase, more than offsetting November’s decline (-3.6 per cent). This was mainly due to rebounds in electric power generation, transmission, and distribution, as well as improved draught conditions and the completion of refurbishment work on nuclear power generating facilities. In the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction subsectors, growth was led by oil sand extraction (+2.3 per cent) as production increased in synthetic crude oil and crude bitumen extraction in Alberta. Similarly, the oil and gas extraction (except oil sands) subsector posted a 0.5 per cent increase, its third consecutive month of growth, led by higher crude oil and natural gas extraction in December.
Despite the postal workers’ strike, transportation and warehousing recorded some growth in December. The sector as a whole was up 0.1 per cent, with rail (+2.9 per cent) and water (+3.0 per cent) transportation rebounding in December, after lockout and strike activity at ports ended in November. Similarly, air transportation was up 1.0 per cent, its fifth increase in the last six months, and pipeline transportation (+0.6 per cent) rose for its third consecutive month. Support activities for transportation and truck transportation recovered in December, as cargo movement resumed at one of Canada’s two largest ports. Despite the recovery, postal service was down 25.5 per cent, reflecting continued strikes until December 17[6], although this was buoyed by couriers and messengers (+7.6 per cent) as alternative carriers to fulfill holiday shopping demand.
Manufacturing continued to decline, decreasing 0.9 per cent in December. This was the sectors’ sixth slowdown in seven months. Deceleration was in both durable-goods manufacturing (-1.4 per cent) and non-durable goods manufacturing (-0.3 per cent). Transportation equipment manufacturing (-1.1 per cent) continued a seven-month downward trend, reflecting weaker activity from motor vehicles and parts manufacturing (-1.4 per cent).
Advance information indicates that real GDP increased 0.3 per cent in January. Increases in mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction, wholesale trade and transportation and warehousing were partially offset by decreases in retail trade.
LOCAL TRENDS, INVESTMENTS, AND SUCCESS STORIES
The Vaughan Business and Entrepreneurship Centre experienced demand for consultations in manufacturing, retail trade and information and cultural industries in February.
Economic Development’s Small Business and Entrepreneurship top five industries seeking consultations in February were:
- Manufacturing (17 per cent)
- Retail trade (17 per cent)
- Information and cultural industries (13 per cent)
- Arts, entertainment and recreation (10 per cent)
- Accommodation and food services (8 per cent)
Vaughan-headquartered Anatolia, announced the grand opening of new distribution centre in the city.
Vaughan-headquartered Anatolia, a global ceramic and stone distributor and renewable energy and real estate management company, recently announced the grand opening of a new facility in the city[7]. The 300,000-square-foot state-of-the-art distribution center is located at 8555 Huntington Road.
Anatolia is part of Vaughan’s construction and building materials industries, which is comprised of 1,960 businesses that employ more than 60,000 employees. Vaughan boasts in-demand industry concentrations including steel product manufacturing, glass and glass product manufacturing, architectural metals manufacturing, building finishing contractors, land subdivisions and residential building construction.
Vaughan-headquartered Longo’s, whose chain of retail supermarkets expands across Southern Ontario, held the grand opening for its fifth Vaughan location.
Vaughan-headquartered Longo’s, whose chain of retail supermarkets expands across Southern Ontario, held the grand opening for its fifth store in Vaughan[8]. The new store, located at 67 Colossus Drive, is a 25,000-square-foot full-shop grocery store. The company employs more than 6,000 workers across all locations, and is anticipating the opening of its 42nd store later this spring with another location in Vaughan.
Vaughan’s agri-food and food processing sector runs “farm to fork”, from more than 7,800 acres of farmland in use to a vibrant retailers and food services industry encompassing nearly 130 grocery and specialty food retailers, including Longo’s. Vaughan’s strengths as an advanced manufacturing hub translate to a destination of choice for food processing, with nearly half of York Region’s food processors located in Vaughan.
[1] Consumer Price Index, January 2025. Statistics Canada.
[2] Press Release on Lowering Gas Tax. Government of Manitoba.
[3] Consumer Price Index – 12-month % change, table 18-10-0004-01. (January, 2025). Statistics Canada.
[4] Labour Force Survey, February 2025. Statistics Canada.
[5] Gross domestic product by industry, December 2024. Statistics Canada.
[6] Statement from the Canadian Union of Postal Workers: More Than 55,000 Postal Workers on Strike. CUPW.
[7] See: https://www.stoneworld.com/articles/94528-new-sintered-slab-facility-opens-in-ontario
[8] See: https://canadiangrocer.com/photo-gallery-longos-unveils-new-store-vaughan-ont