For updates on how the U.S tariffs impact the Vaughan business community, visit vaughanbusiness.ca/tariffs

Vaughan Economic and Business Update – March 2026

Vaughan Economic and Business Update - March 2026

Economic Development is providing this update featuring national, provincial, and local investments, trends, and highlights. These economic indicators link to local investment stories.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

  • The national Consumer Price Index rose 1.8 per cent year-over-year in February, following a 2.3 per cent increase in January
  • The national unemployment rate rose 0.2 percentage points to 6.7 per cent in February, while the employment rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 60.6 per cent.
  • National Real Gross Domestic Product edged up 0.1 per cent in January, following 0.2 per cent growth in December, driven by gains in goods-producing industries.
  • In February, the Vaughan Business and Entrepreneurship Centre experienced demand for consulting in professional and scientific and technical services, retail trade, healthcare and social assistance, accommodation and food services, and education services.
  • Vaughan ranks third nationally in industrial building permits according to 2025 Q4 Building Permit Rankings
  • Vaughan’s hotel sector outperforms York Region across all key metrics according to the 2025 Q4 Accommodation Occupancy Update
  • Federal and Ontario Governments extend HST break on new homes to all buyers
  • Vaughan logistics campus wins 2026 CoStar Impact Award for Commercial Development of the Year.
  • Yolks Breakfast signs franchise agreement and secures Vaughan location for Summer 2026.
  • The fourth annual Talent City Vaughan Youth Careers Expo drew over 220 attendees and connected Vaughan youth with 30 local employers


 

SELECT ECONOMIC INDICATORS

The national Consumer Price Index rose 1.8 per cent year-over-year in February, following a 2.3 per cent increase in January

The Consumer Price Index rose 1.8 per cent on a year-over-year basis in February, down from a 2.3 per cent increase in January. In Ontario and Atlantic Canada, the deceleration was more pronounced than in other provinces, as these provinces have Harmonized Sales Tax, which was included in the temporary GST/HST tax break last year. As a result, the end of the tax break in February 2025 created a base-year effect that pulled down year-over-year comparisons for February 2026 more sharply in these provinces. On a year-over-year basis, prices rose at a slower pace in all provinces in February compared with January.

The primary driver of February’s deceleration was a base-year effect from the end of the federal GST/HST tax break on Feb. 15, 2025. When the break ended in February 2025, prices for affected goods rose sharply month-over-month. When those increases dropped out of the year-over-year calculation in February 2026, they created significant downward pressure on headline inflation. The most notable impact was on food purchased from restaurants, which rose 7.8 per cent year over year in February, decelerating sharply from the 12.3 per cent increase recorded in January when the full base-year effect from the break was still present. Similarly, prices for alcoholic beverages purchased from stores (+5.6 per cent), toys and hobby supplies (+5.4 per cent), and alcoholic beverages served in licensed establishments (+6.8 per cent) all decelerated relative to January. March 2026 will be the final month affected by a base-year effect from the GST/HST break.

Gasoline prices moderated somewhat as a downward pressure on inflation, declining 14.2 per cent year over year in February after a 16.7 per cent decline in January. The smaller year-over-year decline was due to a 3.6 per cent monthly increase in pump prices, largely resulting from higher crude oil prices in the lead-up to conflict in the Middle East, as well as supply disruptions in some oil-producing countries.

Prices for food purchased from stores rose 4.1 per cent year over year in February, following a 4.8 per cent increase in January. While downward pressure was broad-based, the deceleration was modest and led by slower growth in fresh or frozen beef prices, which rose 13.9 per cent in February following an 18.8 per cent increase in January. Despite monthly grocery price growth easing somewhat, prices for food purchased from stores have risen 30.1 per cent since February 2021, a cumulative increase that continues to weigh on household purchasing power.

Shelter costs continued their downward trend, rising 1.5 per cent year over year in February, following 1.7 per cent growth in January. Cellular service prices also decelerated notably, rising 1.5 per cent year over year in February compared with 4.9 per cent in January, driven by a 3.3 per cent month-over-month decline attributed to lower-priced wireless plans from multiple providers.

 

The national unemployment rate rose 0.2 percentage points to 6.7 per cent in February, while the employment rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 60.6 per cent

The national unemployment rate rose 0.2 percentage points to 6.7 per cent in February, while employment declined by 84,000 (-0.4 per cent). Employment fell for a second consecutive month, with the cumulative January-February decline of 109,000 partially offsetting the gains made during the fall of 2025. The unemployment rate nonetheless remained below the recent high of 7.1 per cent reached in August and September 2025

In Ontario, employment held steady in February following a decline of 67,000 (-0.8 per cent) in January. However, the number of Ontarians searching for work increased by 28,000 (+4.3 per cent) in February, pushing the provincial unemployment rate up 0.3 percentage points to 7.6 per cent. The labour force participation rate in Canada fell 0.1 percentage points to 64.9 per cent in February, down 0.4 percentage points on a year-over-year basis.

Nationally, the February employment decline was spread across both services-producing industries (-56,000; -0.3 per cent) and goods-producing industries (-28,000; -0.7 per cent). The largest sectoral decline was in wholesale and retail trade (-18,000; -0.6 per cent), an industry that has trended downward since October 2025, with a cumulative loss of 52,000 (-1.7 per cent) over this period. Employment in manufacturing edged down a further 9,200 (-0.5 per cent) in February; on a year-over-year basis, manufacturing employment was down 52,000 (-2.8 per cent) nationally, reflecting ongoing pressure from United States tariffs on Canadian goods. Construction employment also edged down (-12,000; -0.7 per cent) in February.

The youth unemployment rate (ages 15 to 24) rose 1.3 percentage points to 14.1 per cent in February, approaching the recent high of 14.6 per cent recorded in September 2025. Among core-aged men (25 to 54), the unemployment rate rose 0.3 percentage points to 5.7 per cent. Average hourly wages among employees grew 3.9 per cent (+$1.42 to $37.56) on a year-over-year basis in February, following growth of 3.3 per cent in January.

 

National Real Gross Domestic Product edged up 0.1 per cent in January, following 0.2 per cent growth in December, driven by gains in goods-producing industries

National Real Gross Domestic Product edged up 0.1 per cent in January, following 0.2 per cent growth in December. Goods-producing industries expanded 0.2 per cent for the second month in a row, while services-producing industries were essentially unchanged. Overall, nine of the 20 industrial sectors recorded growth in January.

The construction sector, a key sector for Vaughan’s economy, expanded 1.1 per cent in January, its third consecutive monthly increase, on widespread growth across all subsectors. Engineering and other construction activities led the advance (+1.1 per cent), followed by repair construction (+1.8 per cent). Residential building construction rose 0.8 per cent, driven by increased investment in alterations and improvements as well as expansion in multi-unit dwellings. Non-residential building construction was up for a seventh consecutive month (+1.1 per cent), reflecting increased construction of institutional and commercial buildings.

The manufacturing sector, another key economic driver in Vaughan, contracted 1.4 per cent in January, more than reversing December’s gain. Durable-goods manufacturing fell 2.0 per cent, driven by a sharp contraction in motor vehicles and parts manufacturing (-10.8 per cent, the largest decline for that subsector since September 2021) as extended winter shutdowns for retooling and maintenance at automotive assembly plants in Ontario hampered production and exports. Machinery manufacturing also fell (-5.6 per cent). These results reflect ongoing structural headwinds facing Canada’s manufacturing and automotive sectors in the context of United States tariff pressures.

Transportation and warehousing decreased 0.7 per cent in January, following two consecutive monthly gains, largely due to severe winter storms in late January that disrupted urban transit systems (-2.6 per cent), air transportation (-0.5 per cent), and truck transportation (-0.4 per cent). Pipeline transportation also declined (-1.7 per cent). The impact of prolonged automotive plant shutdowns further affected support activities for transportation.

Finance and insurance grew 0.5 per cent in January, its largest increase since September 2025, driven by record foreign investment in Canadian bonds and higher-than-usual trading activity in both equity and fixed-income markets. Retail trade expanded 0.8 per cent, led by general merchandise retailers (+3.0 per cent) and motor vehicle and parts dealers (+2.4 per cent). An advance estimate from Statistics Canada indicates that Real GDP increased 0.2 per cent in February

 


LOCAL TRENDS, INVESTMENTS, AND SUCCESS STORIES

 

In February, the Vaughan Business and Entrepreneurship Centre experienced demand for consulting in professional and scientific and technical services, retail trade, healthcare and social assistance, accommodation and food services, and education services.

In February, Economic Development’s Small Business and Entrepreneurship top five industries seeking consultations were:

  1. Professional and Scientific and Technical Services (37 per cent)
  2. Retail Trade (21 per cent)
  3. Health Care and Social Assistance (9 per cent)
  4. Accommodation & Food Services (9 per cent)
  5. Education Services (7 per cent)

 

Vaughan ranks third nationally in industrial building permits according to 2025 Q4 Building Permit Rankings

By the end of Q4 2025, Vaughan ranked third nationally in the number of industrial building permits and sixth in the value of those permits. Vaughan’s non-residential permit value totalled more than $826 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, with $456.5 million coming from industrial permits. Vaughan surpassed 105.8 million square feet of industrial inventory in 2025, remaining the most significant industrial market in York Region. Industrial absorption in the Greater Toronto Area climbed to 4.1 million square feet in Q4, the highest quarterly absorption since Q4 2022. Non-residential building construction costs rose 0.5 per cent in the fourth quarter, with structural steel (+1.7 per cent) and metal fabrications (+1.6 per cent) recording the most significant increases, continuing to reflect upward price pressure from import tariffs.

 

Vaughan’s hotel sector outperforms York Region across all key metrics according to the 2025 Q4 Accommodation Occupancy Update

Cumulative year-to-date room nights sold at the end of Q4 2025 was 554,986. The hotel occupancy rate in Q4 2025 was 74.5 per cent, down 2.0 per cent year-over-year. The average daily rate for hotels in Vaughan in December 2025 was $177.31, which was $5.49 (or 3.2 per cent) higher than the overall average for all hotels in York Region during the same month. Revenue per available room for hotels in Vaughan in December 2025 was $111.33, which was $7.54 (or 7.3 per cent) higher than the overall average for hotels in York Region. All three Vaughan indicators — occupancy rate, average daily rate, and revenue per available room — outperformed the York Regional averages, demonstrating Vaughan’s strength as a premier tourism destination.

 

Federal and Ontario Governments extend HST break on new homes to all buyers

The federal and Ontario governments announced an extension of the 13-per-cent sales tax break on new homes worth $1 million or less to all buyers, not just first-time homebuyers. Vaughan-headquartered RESCON (Residential Construction Council of Ontario) applauded the move, calling it a bold and timely step that will breathe new life into the struggling residential construction sector and help revive residential construction and save industry jobs. This is directly relevant to Vaughan as one of Canada’s fastest-growing cities and a construction sector that has historically been a key economic driver for the City.

 

Vaughan’s 30 Labourer’s Way wins 2026 CoStar Impact Award for Commercial Development of the Year.

Vaughan is emerging as an epicentre of Class A industrial properties in the Toronto Region. 30 Labourer’s Way, a 418,000-square-foot logistics campus developed by Fengate Asset Management off Highway 50 and Langstaff Road in Vaughan’s Enterprise Zone, won the 2026 CoStar Impact Award for Commercial Development of the Year for Toronto, as judged by an independent panel of industry professionals. The campus features two state-of-the-art warehouse buildings sharing a trucking court, with proximity to Highway 400 and access to Canadian Pacific’s largest intermodal terminal. Sustainable features include SMART watering systems, high-efficiency LED lighting, eight EV-ready charging stations, and outdoor bicycle infrastructure.

 

Yolks Breakfast signs franchise agreement and secures Vaughan location for Summer 2026.

Happy Belly Food Group announced that its boutique breakfast brand Yolks Breakfast has signed a franchise agreement and secured a real-estate location in Vaughan, with a targeted summer 2026 opening. The Vaughan signing is part of Yolks’ broader Ontario expansion, with 25 contractually committed locations in the province. The addition follows the brand’s first Quebec opening in Montreal and adds to its growing multi-province pipeline.

 

The fourth annual Talent City Vaughan Youth Careers Expo drew over 220 attendees and connected Vaughan youth with 30 local employers

On March 2, 2026, Vaughan Economic Development hosted the fourth annual Talent City Vaughan Youth Careers Expo at Father E. Bulfon Community Centre. The event drew over 400 registrants and more than 220 attendees, the majority of whom were between 15 and 24 years old, and featured 30 employers including Costco, York University, York Regional Police, and the Toronto Regional Conservation Authority. Surveyed employers collectively received over 100 resumes for open positions. Since its launch in 2023, the expo has attracted nearly 800 participants in total, reflecting the City’s continued commitment to connecting Vaughan youth with local employment opportunities.